Win Probability
Win probability answers the question every fan asks. Who is going to win? Models estimate the chance of winning from the current game state. Score, time, down, and distance all mat
Win probability answers the question every fan asks. Who is going to win?
Models estimate the chance of winning from the current game state. Score, time, down, and distance all matter.
In football, a team up by 7 with 5 minutes left has a high win probability. A team up by 3 at half has less.
The model updates after every play. A turnover swings it instantly.
Win probability is honest. It shows how much a single play matters.
The fourth quarter swings are dramatic. The probability moves fast late in games.
Win probability makes games more engaging. It gives you a number to follow.
It is a tool, not a fortune teller. Upsets happen. That is sports.