Record Projections

Predicting records is hard. Models try anyway.

Simple models use last year's record and adjust for roster changes. They are rough.

Advanced models simulate seasons thousands of times. They account for schedule, injuries, and strength.

Projections are probabilities, not predictions. A team projected for 45 wins might finish with 50 or 40.

Variance is real. A single injury or a lucky bounce changes everything.

The best projections are good at the group level. They nail the distribution even when single teams surprise.

Use projections as a starting point. They tell you where to look, not what will happen.

Enjoy the surprise. That is why we watch the games.